Canada has long been seen as a country where hard work, responsibility, and playing by the rules would lead to a better life—not just for ourselves, but for our children. This belief has been central to the Canadian dream. But new reports suggest that this dream is fading.
A recent January 2025 Brief, titled Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question, provides the most troubling evidence yet. And here’s the key point: this is not coming from some obscure think tank. The report was released by Policy Horizons Canada — the federal government’s own “centre of excellence in foresight”, which exists to identify likely future disruptions for policy planning. That makes its findings all the more sobering.
While the CBC has tried to soften the report’s message — describing it as “not a forecast nor a commentary on current or future policies” — the Brief itself describes the scenario as “plausible,” grounded in both recent trends and expert opinion. That matters. Because if we continue on the current path — and enter a fourth Liberal term — we argue that what is plausible becomes probable. And the only way to change course is to change the government that created the conditions for this decline.
The January Brief warns that downward social mobility — where people lose ground instead of gaining it — may become the new normal. It paints a troubling picture of a future Canada where upward mobility is rare, hope is harder to find, and many no longer believe they can build a better life.
The consequences are serious: a shrinking and unstable economy, rising mental health issues, increased emigration, disillusionment with public institutions, and even a rejection of the systems that once held us together. All of these signs point to a growing crisis of confidence in the country’s direction.
This isn’t just an unfortunate trend—it’s the result of ten years of mismanagement by the Liberal government, propped up by the NDP. Their policies have stifled growth, burdened working Canadians, and drained public trust. What we’re seeing now is not an accident. It’s the natural outcome of reckless spending, ideological governance, and a failure to deliver real results for real people.
These findings echo what Pierre Poilievre has been warning Canadians about for the past two years. Canadians are now living the consequences of failed leadership, broken promises, and misplaced priorities.
The truth is becoming impossible to ignore: our current path is unsustainable. The values of hard work, opportunity, and fairness are under threat.
Now more than ever, we must stand for common sense, fiscal responsibility, and policies that serve working Canadians. We must restore hope and rebuild the promise that if you work hard, you can get ahead.
We will keep fighting for a country where families can thrive, young people can see a future, and no one is punished for doing the right thing. This is our moment to lead—and to turn the page on a decade of decline.
We will keep fighting for a country where families can thrive, young people can believe in tomorrow, and doing the right thing is rewarded—not punished. After a decade of decline, Canadians are ready for change—and only the Conservative Party has the courage, the vision, and the leadership to deliver it.
Executive Summary
(Excerpt from Policy Horizons Canada – January 2025 Brief)
Social mobility lies at the heart of the Canadian project. Many people in Canada assume that “following the rules” and “doing the right things” will lead to a better life.
However, things are changing. Wealth inequality is rising. It is already common for children to be less upwardly mobile than their parents. Policy Horizons' reports on Future Lives (2022) and Basic Needs at Risk (2023) explore these changes. More recently, the Disruptions on the Horizons: 2024 Report suggests that, in the coming years, downward social mobility might become the norm.
This foresight brief paints a picture of Canada in 2040, where upward social mobility is uncommon. Hardly anyone believes that they can build a better life for themselves or their children in this future. However, many worry about sliding down the social order, which has become much more common.
This scenario is neither the desired nor the preferred future. However, Policy Horizons' research suggests that it is plausible and would create challenges across a range of policy areas.
- The economy may shrink or become more volatile.
- Mental health challenges could grow due to frustrated hopes and expectations.
- Workers and recent immigrants may choose to leave Canada for better opportunities elsewhere.
- People may turn to informal, grassroots, or community-based ways of fulfilling their basic needs.
- The post-secondary education sector may become a stranded asset.
- People may reject the systems they believe have failed them.
Overall, social immobility might lead some people to lose motivation to improve their prospects, or to embrace radical ideas about restructuring society. Some may even lose faith in the Canadian project. Other people might reject consumption and focus on activities that promote human flourishing, provided their basic needs are fulfilled.